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	<title>Internet Forex Trading Advisor</title>
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		<title>Despite “Signs of Improvement” Bernanke Holds Near-Zero Rate Pledge</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/despite-%e2%80%9csigns-of-improvement%e2%80%9d-bernanke-holds-near-zero-rate-pledge</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/despite-%e2%80%9csigns-of-improvement%e2%80%9d-bernanke-holds-near-zero-rate-pledge#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ifta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chairman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[confidence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EMPLOYMENT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[federal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[federal-open]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ifta.in/despite-%e2%80%9csigns-of-improvement%e2%80%9d-bernanke-holds-near-zero-rate-pledge</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ Speaking before the House Budget Committee in Washington today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the U.S. economy appeared to be gaining in strength. “Fortunately, over the past few months, indicators of spending, production, and job-market activity have shown some signs of improvement,” Bernanke testified. “The outlook remains uncertain, however, and close monitoring of economic developments will remain necessary.” Despite the more positive tone, Bernanke reaffirmed a continuance of the Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy . Last month, the Fed extended its pledge to hold the line on interest rates for an additional year, stating that rates would likely remain at the record low cap of 0.25 percent until late 2014. To offset fears that low lending rates could lead to inflation, Bernanke told the Committee that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still considered 2 percent growth to be the ideal target. Given the current conditions, the FOMC expects inflation to remain “subdued” . U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply in January Bernanke’s testimony comes less than a week after the release of the January Consumer Confidence Index. The January result was a sharp decline in confidence, falling to 61.1 percent from 64.8 percent after two consecutive months of significant gains. The downturn in the index suggests consumers are increasingly worried that rising costs will take a greater bite out of household budgets. There is hope that confidence will rise should the employment outlook continue to improve. For the final quarter of 2011, unemployment fell by half a percent to 8.5 percent and momentum appears to be gathering steam with claims for unemployment benefits falling more than expected for the week ending January 21st. Get OANDA&#8217;s exclusive weekly Market Pulse FX Email Address: Preferred Format: HTML Text ]]></description>
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		<title>China to Play the Eurozone’s White Knight?</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/china-to-play-the-eurozone%e2%80%99s-white-knight</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/china-to-play-the-eurozone%e2%80%99s-white-knight#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ifta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chancellor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china-desires]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Establishment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[european]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[european-union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market pulse]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[three-day-visit]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[ Since the early days of the Eurozone debt crisis, insiders have identified China and its $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves as a potential contributor to a Eurozone bailout fund. Today, Premier Wen Jiabao gave markets reason to believe this may yet be the case when Wen suggested that China is considering the options for how it may contribute to keeping the Eurozone together. The original European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) is scheduled to be superseded by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) later this year. The ESM is expected to provide 500 billion euros ($656 billion) to the establishment of a bailout fund. Wen did not confirm whether China would contribute to the ESM directly, but this does seem to be the most logical way China could help support the region. China Desires a Stable Euro and Eurozone It is in China’s interest to help stabilize the Eurozone. It is estimated that up to one quarter – or roughly 620 billion euros – of China’s foreign exchange is held in euros. Shielding this investment from further decline is obviously of vital importance to China. However, China also wants to see prosperity return to the region as quickly as possible to protect its export interests. The wider European Union is China’s largest export market with 282 billion euros worth of goods exported in 2010. Sales for 2011 continued to increase but at a slower pace and there is a growing worry that sales could soon start to decline. German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrived in China today to kick off a three-day visit aimed largely at reassuring China that European leaders have a handle on the debt crisis. Get OANDA&#8217;s exclusive weekly Market Pulse FX Email Address: Preferred Format: HTML Text ]]></description>
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		<title>US Unemployment Falls to 8.3%</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/us-unemployment-falls-to-8-3</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/us-unemployment-falls-to-8-3#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ifta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy-grew]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Final]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forex round up]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greatest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[influx-helped]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[national]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quarter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rebuilding]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[slower-growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the-rebuilding]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[ Friday&#8217;s Non-Farm Payroll indicates that 243,000 jobs were added in January marking the greatest single-month gain since last April. The influx helped lower the national unemployment rate to 8.3 percent from 8.5 percent the month before. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the final three months of 2011, quickening from 1.8 percent in the third quarter. However, the rebuilding of stocks by businesses accounted for two-thirds of the rise, setting the economy up for a slower growth pace this quarter. Source: Reuters ]]></description>
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		<title>Greece Close to Debt Deal</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/greece-close-to-debt-deal</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/greece-close-to-debt-deal#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ifta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[avoid-default]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[ Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said Greece was close to coming to terms on a deal with Eurozone authorities and its bond holders that would reduce the weight of the country&#8217;s debt and still provide access to credit as the government struggles to contain its deficit. In order to avoid default, Greece is attempting to reduce its overall debt load to 120 percent of GDP compared to the current 162 percent. The rescue plan, which European officials and Greek creditors say may be wrapped up in coming days, includes a loss of more than 70 percent for bondholders in a voluntary debt exchange and loans likely to exceed the 130 billion euros ($171 billion) now on the table. Source: Bloomberg ]]></description>
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		<title>NFP no license to apply risk</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/nfp-no-license-to-apply-risk</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/nfp-no-license-to-apply-risk#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ifta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gbp]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[ Analysts’ employment expectations were blown out of the water on Friday. NFP produced a stellar report, creating +243k new jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down two ticks to +8.3%. Risk has been quickly applied and added to in the markets. The loonie is a shining example of a growth currency outperforming, especially on the back of its own disappointing employment report. However, beware of the extremely bearish risk factors lurking in the background i.e Euro debt crisis, slowing global growth and Iran nuclear concerns, which remain largely ignored, before wagering it all on risk. It’s a good start to 2012 for the Obama administration, but not a trend just yet. The headline print has managed to produce some blood on the “street”, they had predicted a more bearish print. Below are some other highlights of the week: Americas USD: This week we saw incomes pick up during December, +0.5%, however, individuals chose to increase savings instead of spending, showing a caution that will likely keep the US economy in slow growth mode throughout 2012. November spending was unrevised at +0.1%. USD: Unexpected poor Case-Schiller Home Prices and an unexpected Chicago PMI managed to trigger some macro-money profit taking on the last day of the month. Case-Schilller November 20-city HPI fell -1.3%, m/m. The housing market remains sluggish despite lower prices and interest rates, an abundance of foreclosures and tighter mortgage requirements. USD: Chicago PMI was 60.2 compared with a forecast of 62.2. The forward looking component, the new order index, dropped in January to 63.6 from 67.1. USD: US January consumer confidence retreats to 61.1 from 64.8, giving back some of the huge gains witnessed over the past two-months. The fallback was concentrated in consumers views of the current economy. The present situation index (current economic indicators) dropped to 38.4 from a revised 46.5-“consumers are more upbeat about employment but less optimistic about business conditions and their incomes.” CAD: The Canadian economy shrank for the first time in six-months, dragged down mostly by a decline in energy output (oil and gas fell -2.5%), down -0.1% to +CAD$1.27t in November. The BoC released forecasts from two-weeks ago was for GDP growth to slow to +2% in October through December from +3.5% in Q3. USD: ADP reported that Private Sector Jobs with small businesses lead the hiring +95k. However, the December print was revised lower to +292k from +325k. Its a “slow and steady pace” that could bring down the unemployment rate, but not rapid enough to return payrolls to their pre-recession peaks anytime soon. USD: January ISM rises near to expectations of 54.1, proof that growth picked up last month. Digging deeper, prices gained ground after contracting in December, and hiring grew at a slightly slower pace. Factories continue to be a consistent contributor to overall growth. USD: The number of US workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined last week (-12k to +367k), continuing the mostly improving trend seen in nine-months. The four-week moving average decreased by -2k to +375,750, remaining below that psychological +400k benchmark that&#8217;s required to add jobs to the economy. USD: In his House Budget Committee testimony this week, Bernanke has not changed his tune, again stating that the economy has shown signs of improvement while remaining vulnerable to shocks, and he called on lawmakers to reduce the long-term US budget deficit. USD: Dallas Fed Fisher (nonvoter) reiterated his opposition to further QE. He said that QE3 is not needed and that it would complicate the eventual tightening policies. CAD: Employers hired far fewer workers than expected in Jan (+2.6k vs. +23k) and the jobless rate rose unexpectedly to +7.6% from +7.5%. The data reflects an economy that’s slowing and is consistent with the BoC keeping rates unchanged. Despite creating +129k jobs last year-growth was in the first six-months. (Full-time jobs declined by -3.6k, part-time rose +5.9k, private and public sector increased by +39k while self-employed fell-37k). USD:NFP produced a stellar report, sideswiping most analysts expectations. Payrolls increased by +243k, m/m, allowing the unemployment rate to ease two-ticks to +8.3%. The breakdown saw manufacturing gain +50k, services +162k and the Government eliminate-14k positions. The hourly income increased +0.2% while the number of hours worked remained unchanged at +34.5. ]]></description>
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		<title>Week in FX Jan 29-Feb 3</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/week-in-fx-jan-29-feb-3</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/week-in-fx-jan-29-feb-3#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ifta]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[dean's fx]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[italian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jpy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unemployment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[usd]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ifta.in/week-in-fx-jan-29-feb-3</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ CHF continues to rise despite the EUR’s resilience. The SNB&#8217;s pledge to hold the CHF 1.20 cap will soon be tested. Since its inception last September it has worked, however, in the past few weeks’ market sentiment has changed dramatically. China considering greater involvement in EFSF and ESM program has done little to support currency so far. The market has aggressively been playing the risk reward trade at these levels by selling CHF aggressively and waiting for the imminent announcement. The threat of a deep recession in the problem Euro-zone is only making this trade more difficult to stomach. The region has yet to feel the true impact of the implemented austerity measures to reduce their budget deficits. Euro banks tightening their lending policies to both corporate and private interest over the last three months is putting a tighter noose around mainland Europe. The ECB’s increased liquidity policy is not working. All of this is pointing towards the Euro sentiment plummeting again-CHF and JPY positive. The Franc&#8217;s outright performance against the dollar is not exactly helping the SNB. Bernanke’s dovish tone has driven the yield spreads between the US and Swiss even lower and made the CHF more attractive. It seems that all the cross bounces are giving investors better opportunities to own the currency or pare their offside positions outright. Intervention again is the risk, however, the rumored $20+ “yards” of stop-loss orders below the cap figure should be cleaned out if the SNB wants to teach the market an expensive lesson. Below are some other highlights of the week: EUROPE EU: The dollar opened the week much stronger against EM and G10 currencies. The risk selloff started during the Asia session, as markets re-opened after the Lunar New Year holiday. EU: Italy issues +€7.5b in 2016-2022 bonds ahead of their largest redemption for 2012 (February 1st +EUR25b). The auctions were well received, however, post interest saw the ECB buying product. EU: Portugeuse 5-year product manages to record the highest yields for the post-Euro era of +22.69%, fueled by the turn of events in Greece. The market perception seems to accept a Greek default as a given. EU Summit: A leaked German proposal for Greece to cede control over its budget in return for financial aid “casted an uncertain outlook on PSI negotiations.” Market continue to question “the soundness of the recent risk rally.” WSJ reported that a Greek PSI deal ‘may’ be concluded this week. This of course is subject to Greece securing a new financing program from the IMF and EU. EU: Mixed European confidence surveys contributed to softening risk appetite at the beginning of the week. Services confidence improved while industrial confidence failed to pick up from the recent lows. EU: Unemployment in the Euro-zone hits a record high +10.4%. EU Leaders: They have agreed to accelerate the set up of a full time +Eur500b rescue fund (EMS and EFSF) and backed a deficit control treaty. Initially response saw European sovereign markets responding well to the summit outcome, with Italian 10-year yields reversing about half of the previous sessions rise. EU: The brief Euro-summit has been viewed as a success relative to modest expectations, allowing the market to eliminate some event risk for the euro system. GRE: Greece PSI remains elusive and is continuing to generate market anxiety. CHF: The SNB’s December balance sheet report confirms that policy makers used FX swaps to add CHF liquidity during the course of December last year (+CHF 20b). CHF: The SNB’s balance sheet also revealed small changes to the FX reserve breakdown by currencies (EUR’s share from +54.8% in Q3 to +52.1% in Q4-in favor of dollars and GBP). At current levels, risk reward favors long EUR/CHF. UK: The market is looking for QE expansion next week in the UK, mostly on the back of money growth remaining very weak. M4 ex-OFC contracted -0.7%, m/m. Net consumer credit declined -£0.4b, while mortgage approvals at 52.9k disappointed vs. the consensus for 54k. NOK: Norway’s credit rose +6.7%, y/y, above the consensus forecast for +6.5%. Retails sales growth remains solid in annual terms at +2.6%, y/y. The futures market expects the Norges bank to remain resilient as data support call for rates “on hold” at the next meeting. NOK: The Norges Bank will purchase foreign exchange equivalent to +NOK350m per day for the Government Pension Fund Global in February. This amount is not large compared to the historical average. EU: Stronger PMI’s in Europe and China allowed risk sensitive deals to pressure the dollar and yen mid-week. EU: The Euro-zone PMI was revised a tad higher from the initial estimate to 48.8. Digging deeper, the German PMI was also revised higher, while the Italian PMI at 46.8 printed well above the consensus forecast of 45.3. Spain&#8217;s was not to be left behind, its PMI rose to 45.1 from 43.7. The data suggests that the business climate is at least stabilizing in the region, including in the systemically critical periphery countries. Scandinavia, UK and CE3 PMI’s increased strongly. In the UK perhaps further QE becomes questionable? Swedish and Norwegian prints swung back above 50 (expansion). CHF: In contrast, Swiss PMI decreased sharply to 47.3. They also managed to report a weak retail sale (annual growth rate dropped to +0.6% from +1.8%). EU: Consistent rumors that a Greek PSI deal has been struck (with a 72% NPV haircut) has pushed investors to strap on more risk. What about the collective action clauses? EU: There are reports that the PSI deal is being held up by differences between Germany and the IMF. When the “collective actions clauses” are being enforced we will get to hear more from the disgruntled creditors. The various posturing by interested parties is in danger of making this the worlds longest ‘expected’ announcement. EU: EU Juncker says that Greek PSI talk are ultra-difficult. The lack of tangible progress in the talks seems to be taking a toll on currencies geared to Europe &#8211; CE3, Scandis, ZAR, and TRY. CNY: Premier Wen has indicated that China is still researching how to participate in the EFSF and ESM program. China supports European effort to stabilize Euro and it may increase their participation via the rescue funds to help resolve the European debt crisis. CHF: Bernanke’s dovish tone has driven the USD/CHF yield spreads even lower and is making the CHF more attractive. These cross bounces are giving investors better opportunities to own the currency or pare their offside positions outright. Intervention again is the risk. EU: Spain and France managed to issue bonds, at the front end and in the belly of the curve, to strong investor demand. GBP: UK construction PMI fell to 51.4 in January from 53.2 (below consensus for 52.5). Manufacturing and services surveys will carry a larger weight for the next BoE meeting (February 9). Analysts are looking for an expansion in the QE program next week based on weak hard data in Q4 and very soft money growth. EU: The Euro area services PMI was revised fractionally lower from the flash estimate, it now reads 50.4 vs. 50.5. EU: Greek PSI talks continue, with markets increasingly ignoring statements suggesting progress is being made. Latest reports indicate a deal could be submitted to the EU and IMF over the weekend, and approved at a Eurogroup meeting next Monday. GBP: The UK Services PMI rose to 56.0 in January from 54.0 in December, the strongest level since March 2011.Next week we get to see if extra QE is to be applied. Unchanged BoE policy or a signal to an end of QE would clearly be positive for GBP as a EUR alternative. EU: Euro-zone retail sales fell for a second month in December, down -0.4% m/m and -1.6% y/y. Retail sales is again strong proof that the EUR’s 17-nations are threatening to return to recession, if they are not already there. In the 27-member European Union, sales rose +0.3%; largely due to a +0.4% rise in the UK and a +0.7% uptick in Poland. ]]></description>
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		<title>Land of the Rising Yen</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/land-of-the-rising-yen</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/land-of-the-rising-yen#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[ Japan’s Finance Minister Azumi said that the government will take decisive currency steps if needed and that speculative moves in the currency market are increasing. He and his policy makers can breath a small ‘sigh-of-relief’ after NFP, the market decided to sell the JPY outright! How long is this going to last? These specific market moves are providing better levels to own the currency. Markets have taken the Ministers comments in their stride. Intervention is a rising risk for USD/JPY shorts if the pair falls towards that psychological 75 benchmark. It seems that exporter related sales will continue to cap any upside potential for the dollar. So, fears that the Greek Prime Minister may resign, the uncertainty that the Dutch Government may not want to write down loans to Greece will again make the yen more attractive. Below are some other highlights of the week: Asia CNY: Chinese markets resumed trading following the week-long Lunar New Year holidays. Premier Wen said that the Chinese government will enhance the elasticity of the CNY exchange rate in both directions. JPY: Japanese Finance Minister Azumi warned against a renewed rise in the yen and vowed to take firm steps against excess volatility and speculative moves in the FX market. JPY: Japans December IP rebounded +4.0%, m/m, following the -2.7% fall in the previous month (the ‘flood’ knock effect-on from Thailand). JPY: Yen remains sensitive to G10’s yield compression. KWN: Korean IP growth fell to +2.8%, y/y in December from +5.8% in November. This is very much inline with soft export growth in December. SGD: Singapore’s unemployment rate remained at +2% in Q4, despite weakness in IP and GDP growth for the same period. This suggests that the tightness in the labor market is partly structural. CNY: China&#8217;s manufacturing PMI rose +0.2pt to 50.5 (higher than the consensus forecast of 49.6). Importantly, the PMI was much stronger than the seasonal pattern for a -0.7pt fall. New orders up +0.6pt to 50.4 while inventory fell -2.6pt to 48.0. Export orders fell -1.7pt to 46.9 while input prices rallied +2.9pt to 50.0. The data reduces the scope for monetary easing. KWN: Korea&#8217;s CPI inflation fell to +3.4%, y/y, last month (foretasted for +3.6%). Core-inflation also slowed to +3.2%, y/y, from +3.6% in December. Digging deeper, exports fell -6.6% in January (first negative growth in three-years), providing a &#8211; $2.0b trade deficit. Note: Asian data may be distorted by the lunar New-Year celebrations. IDR: Indonesia CPI inflation eased to +3.7% in January as expected. Core-inflation was broadly unchanged at +4.3%, y/y. The futures market expects their Central bank to ease monetary policy further, cutting rates -25bps to +5.75% next week (February 9). Export growth fell to +2.2% in December while import growth surged to +24.3%. The data has narrowed the trade surplus. Is their economy in the first stages of over heating? TWD: Thai CPI inflation fell to +3.4%, in January (as expected). Futures market again expects the Bank of Thailand to cut policy rates by another -50bps to +2.5% by the end of Q2. JPY: Comments from Japanese officials are finding it difficult to halt the yen gains. The perception that JPY is one of the most liquid currencies in the world is been seen as a sound alternative to the two prime reserve currencies, EUR and USD. Their stability and debt-led debasement issues are to blame. This would suggest that it’s only a matter of time before the BoJ appears in the markets directly. A similar storyline is being played out in Europe with the SNB. CNY: China&#8217;s non-manufacturing PMI fell -3.1pts to 52.9 in January (less than expected). The HSBC Services PMI was unchanged at 52.5 for a third straight month in January. JPY: Japan Finance Minister Azumi said that the government will take decisive currency steps if needed and that speculative moves in the currency market are increasing. INR: RBI&#8217;s Deputy Governor Gokarn said that the central bank may buy dollar rupee to inject INR liquidity. ]]></description>
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		<title>U.S. Dollar Reversal Underway, Euro Eyes 23.6% Fib</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/u-s-dollar-reversal-underway-euro-eyes-23-6-fib</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/u-s-dollar-reversal-underway-euro-eyes-23-6-fib#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:50:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ifta.in/u-s-dollar-reversal-underway-euro-eyes-23-6-fib</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ Talking Points     U.S. Dollar: Index Threatens Downward Trending Channel, Labor Force Continues To Shrink     Euro: Carves Out Lower Top, Greece Seeks Another EUR 15B     British Pound: Upward Trend Gives Out, BoE To Conduct More QE U.S. Dollar: Index Threatens Downward Trending Channel, Labor Force Continues To Shrink The greenback extended the advance from the previous day, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR ) advancing to a high of 9,751, and the short-term reversal should gather pace in the coming days as the index threatens the downward trending channel carried over from the previous month. Indeed, employment in the world’s largest economy increased another 243K in January, and the rise in hiring may lead the Fed to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the recovery gradually gathers pace. However, we saw the jobless rate fall back to 8.3% from 8.5% as discouraged workers continued to leave the labor force, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may keep the door open to expand the balance sheet further in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. In turn, we expect the FOMC to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout the first-half of the year, but there’s little in the way of seeing another round of quantitative easing as the risk of a double-dip recession subsides. As the USDOLLAR appears to be finding near-term support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 9,710, this could be a key reversal for the greenback, and the bullish momentum underlining the dollar looks poised to gather pace in the week ahead as the relative strength index bounces back from a low of 30. Euro: Maintains Narrow Range, All Eyes On ECB Rate Decision The Euro pared the advance to 1.3205 to maintain the range from earlier this week, and the single currency is likely to face additional headwinds in the following week as the fundamental outlook turns increasingly bleak. Although the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.00%, we are likely to see President Mario Draghi maintain a dovish tone at the press conference following the rate decision, and the central bank head may take additional steps beyond the three-year loan facility scheduled for the end of the month as the heightening risk for contagion continues to pose a threat to the world financial system. In turn, we are looking for a close below the 10-Day SMA (1.3115) to provide conviction for a short EUR/USD trade, and the exchange rate looks poised to fall back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2630-50 as the pair appears to be carving a lower top in February. British Pound: Upward Trend Gives Out, BoE To Conduct More QE The British Pound broke out of the upward trending channel from the previous month, with the GBP/USD slipping to a low of 1.5749, and we expect the sterling to face additional headwinds in the following week as market participants see the Bank of England expanding its asset purchase program by another GBP 50B next week. As the GBP/USD fails to make another run at the 200-Day SMA (1.5956), with the RSI falling back from a high of 66, the technical outlook point to a short-term reversal in the exchange rate, but we may see the pound-dollar hold steady ahead of the BoE rate decision as the pair continues to find support around the 38.2% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.5730-50. &#8212; Written by David Song, Currency Analyst To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong To be added to David&#8217;s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line &#8220;Distribution List&#8221; to dsong@dailyfx.com. ]]></description>
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		<title>Euro Unemployment Hits Record 10.4%</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/euro-unemployment-hits-record-10-4</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/euro-unemployment-hits-record-10-4#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:51:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ifta.in/euro-unemployment-hits-record-10-4</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ Unemployment in the Eurozone region rose to a record 10.4 percent in December of last year. Spain was the hardest hit of the 17 countries at 22.9 percent unemployment while Austria has the lowest unemployment rate of 4.1 percent. Guillaume Menuet, economist at Citigroup, said he expected the number of people out of work to increase throughout 2012. &#8220;If you think about the direction of employment expectations that you see across various business surveys, the outlook for employment doesn&#8217;t look particularly enticing, simply because the uncertainty is very high. In many cases you find firms continuing to delay investment projects. For those that are still making profits, hiring is being frozen, and for those which are under pressure to hit results or losing money, job losses are becoming the only solution that they have,&#8221; he said. Source: BBC News ]]></description>
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		<title>Record Eurozone Unemployment Pits North Against South</title>
		<link>http://www.ifta.in/record-eurozone-unemployment-pits-north-against-south</link>
		<comments>http://www.ifta.in/record-eurozone-unemployment-pits-north-against-south#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:51:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ifta.in/record-eurozone-unemployment-pits-north-against-south</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ The December unemployment rate for the 17-member countries comprising the Eurozone rose to the highest level since the Euro was introduced in 1999. For the month of December, the rate for the entire region rose to 10.4 percent after the November result was similarly revised upwards one tenth of a percent from the originally-reported 10.3 percent. A total of 16.5 million people across the Eurozone are now out of work. This is an increase of three quarters of a million in the past year alone. But the pain is not being felt equally amongst all Eurozone nations. Greece and Spain recorded the greatest increase in unemployment over the past year. At 22.9 percent, Spain had the highest unemployment rate for the entire area with Greece not far behind at just over 19 percent. Portugal watched helplessly as its unemployment rate continued to climb reaching 13.6 percent in December. Comparing the results of these southern countries with the northern jurisdictions reveals the gap between the north and the south. In Germany, for instance, December’s unemployment rate actually fell more than expected to 6.7 percent – the lowest since German was reunited. Meanwhile, Austria and the Netherlands continued to record the lowest Eurozone unemployment at just 4.1 and 4.9 percent respectively. Unemployment to Increase in Some Eurozone Countries Looking ahead to the coming year and beyond, there is every likelihood that the situation will actually worsen. As even the most casual observer knows, the Greek government is presently under intense pressure to implement the infamous “austerity” measures to address the country’s widening deficit. The massive spending cuts targeted to meet the goal of ultimately eliminating the deficit will require Greek authorities to eradicate a significant number of government jobs. Other countries including Spain, Portugal, and even Italy will be forced – to some degree at least – to follow the same agenda in order to get a handle on overall spending. Widespread job losses will not be restricted to just the government, however; the private sector too will be forced to reduce costs as companies struggle with falling sales. In the face of the continued uncertainty and growing fears of recession , companies will postpone or even cancel all but the most essential new projects, delaying new hiring accordingly. Again, it will be the southern countries that will feel the effects of this most keenly. Get OANDA&#8217;s exclusive weekly Market Pulse FX Email Address: Preferred Format: HTML Text ]]></description>
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